The "Hot Hand" Effect In Poker

Before I read the article by Gilovich, I have been noticing the hot hand effect (Gilovich, 1991) in Texas hold'em, a popular poker game. I play every week at a local bar in a free tournament where the winner gets a cash prize. I have also been playing the game at with my friends for years. In texas hold'em everyone is dealt two cards and then can use five community cards to form the best five card hand. The two cards that people are dealt and the five community cards are completely random every hand even though it may not seem so. It always seems that people will catch good cards in streaks, similar to a player in veagas rolling good dice over and over again at a craps table. On the other hand, it is also the case where it seems that people will catch bad cards all at once also. I took research methods and I know that everything is completley random and having good and bad cards is simply good or bad luck. However, when I am sitting at a poker table and the player across from me is continually getting good hands and I have to repeadely fold my hand because it is not strong enough, it gets harder and harder to beleive it is simply dumb luck. Eventually, I will play a bad hand and most likely loose money simply becuase I am getting frusterated and bored. These feelings I beleive are a direct result of the hot hand effect. Even though it is proven not to be true, and I know that it can't be the case that the universe is picking me to have bad cards and for the other guy to have good cards, I just find my self trying to find someone or something to blame for my bad luck. Last week was an excellent example of this. I was playing at table with a group of people, and there was one guy who was winning all the pots. In poker there are two ways to win a pot, either be really good at the actual game, or to just have really good luck. This guy was not very skilled, but still winning everything. I sat there folding my hand over and over again while I watched this other guy get good cards almost everytime and also would hit good cards in the community cards to go with the cards in his hand. At the end of an hour i had not played one hand and had almost blinded myself out of the game (that means betting the minimum bet everytime I have to), but the other guy had almost kicked everyone out by winning their money with many good hands. I know he was getting lucky because I have played with him before and he is not a very good player. I eventually played a hand that was not very good, because that was all I could get, and lost feeling very discouraged and puzzled at what I had just experienced. This just shows that even though the hot hand effect is not a real effect, I can see how easy it is for people like very knowledgeable basketball coaches to strongly beleive in it.

Gilovich, T. (1991). Something out of nothing: The misperception and misrepresentation of random data. How we Know What isn't so: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life, The Free Press, 9-21.